CoreLogic: As buyer demand cools, home prices fell 0.5% in September from the previous month
IRVINE, Calif.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–CoreLogic, a leading global provider of property information, analytics and data solutions, today released the CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI™) and HPI forecast™ for September 2022.
US home price growth continued to ease year over year in September, posting an 11.4% increase. As in previous months, southeastern states saw price gains well above the national growth rate, with Florida again leading the nation for the eighth consecutive month. Although rising mortgage rates continue to dampen housing demand nationwide, emigration from more expensive West Coast and Northeast states is likely fueling homebuyer enthusiasm for properties in the Relatively more affordable southeastern states. CoreLogic expects annual U.S. home price growth to continue to slow over the next 12 months to 3.9% by September 2023.
“Rapidly rising prices during the COVID-19 pandemic have caused many U.S. real estate markets to reach levels that would be completely unaffordable for potential local buyers,” said Selma Hepp, acting head of the Economist’s Office in head at CoreLogic. “On the West Coast and in the Mountain-West states, home prices are slowing from this spring’s peak, but remain elevated from a year ago. In contrast, markets that continue to see immigration from high-income households are still seeing house price increases well above the national appreciation rate.
U.S. home prices (including distressed sales) were up 11.4% year-over-year in September 2022 compared to September 2021. Month-over-month, House prices fell 0.5% from August 2022.
In September, the annual appreciation of detached properties (11.5%) was 0.4 percentage points higher than that of attached properties (11.1%).
Annual home price growth in the United States is expected to slow to 3.9% by September 2023.
Miami posted the largest year-over-year home price increase of the nation’s 20 largest metropolitan areas in September, at 25.6%, while Tampa, Florida remained second at 23. .2%.
Florida and South Carolina posted the highest price increases, 23% and 17.6%, respectively. Tennessee ranked third with a 17.4% year-over-year increase. Washington, DC ranked last for appreciation at 1.8%.
The next CoreLogic HPI press release, containing data for October 2022, will be published on December 6, 2022 at 8:00 a.m. EST.
CoreLogic HPI™ leverages industry-leading public records, service and title databases and incorporates over 45 years of repeat sales transactions to analyze home price trends. Typically released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average lag of five weeks, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Combined Single Family” level, representing the entire more complete. of properties, including all sales of attached single-family and detached single-family properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and use techniques to signal turning points earlier. The CoreLogic HPI provides metrics for several market segments, called tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (compliant or non-compliant), and distressed sales. Extensive national coverage is available from the national level down to the zip code, including non-disclosure states.
HPI CoreLogic Forecast™ are based on a two-stage error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium price of housing – as a function of real disposable income per capita – with short-term fluctuations caused by market dynamics, the return to average and exogenous economic shocks such as changes in the unemployment rate. With a forecast horizon of 30 years, the CoreLogic HPI forecast projects the CoreLogic HPI levels for two levels – “Combined single family” (both attached and detached) and “Combined single family excluding distressed sales”. Complementing CoreLogic HPI forecasts, stress test scenarios align with national Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) scenarios to project home prices five years ahead under baseline, adverse and highly unfavorable at the state, metro area and zip code levels. The accuracy of the predictions represents a statistical confidence interval of 95% with a margin of error of +/- 2% for the index.
About the Market Risk Indicator
Market Risk Indicators is a subscription-based analytics solution that provides monthly updates on the overall “health” of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic’s data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the probability of a housing bubble bursting in 392 major cities and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-stage regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the probability of two scenarios per metro: a price reduction > 10% and a price reduction ≤ 10%. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price drop.
About Market Condition Indicators
As part of the CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts offerings, market condition indicators are available for all metropolitan areas and identify individual markets as “overvalued”, “at value” or “undervalued”. These indicators are derived from long-term fundamental values, which are a function of real disposable income per capita. Markets are labeled as overvalued if current house price indices exceed their long-term values by more than 10%, and undervalued when long-term values exceed index levels by more than 10%.
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CoreLogic is a leading global provider of property information, analytics, and data-driven solutions. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes more than 4.5 billion records spanning over 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, location, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to customers through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Customers rely on CoreLogic to identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Based in Irvine, California, CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia-Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
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